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By Steven I. Davis (auth.)
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Additional resources for Banking in Turmoil: Strategies for Sustainable Growth
The latter theme is very much on the minds of banks in markets where the taxpayer has pumped massive resources into the banking system. Thus Sam Theodore points out that The strategy of a large universal bank should have as an anchor the home market. This will give credibility, stability, predictability, while increasing the systemic importance vis-à-vis the government. Matias Inciarte echoes this view, but with a critical caveat: There’s a trend now to retreat to the home market, both to solve problems and to de-leverage.
We need a period of stability and transparency – time – before there’s any model. Roberto Nicastro agrees: Investors are pretty scared. What will happen in two years? If we try to do anything to move away from the short term, like dropping quarterly reporting, we’d get killed by the analysts. But in practice our business model will be more focused. 46 Banking in Turmoil Andy Maguire takes a more cynical view: The current view will change! It’s not de-leveraging, but higher growth and returns will be targeted.
1% in the pure economic downturn. Another approach has been taken by Citigroup’s European economic team, which has analysed selected banking crises on a global scale as well as going back much further in time to the US banking and economic collapse of the 1930s, which is used by many economists as the base case for the current crisis. Their sample also includes the subsequent Japanese property bubble and subsequent deﬂation of the 1990s, the Swedish banking crisis of the early 1990s, and the Hong Kong deﬂationary period of 1997–2002 following the Asian banking collapse.